A stunning Iowa ballot that exhibits Vice President Kamala Harris with a slight lead within the state over former President Donald Trump has thrown a “monkey wrench” into the homestretch of the marketing campaign, in keeping with Rick Klein, ABC Information Washington bureau chief and political director.
With a day to go earlier than Election Day, a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll carried out by famend Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer confirmed Harris with a 47% to 44% benefit amongst possible voters over Trump, who scored stable victories within the Hawkeye State in 2016 and 2020 presidential races.
Methods to watch ABC Information reside protection of 2024 election outcomes
The ballot, launched on Saturday, follows a Des Moines Register/Mediacom ballot in September that gave Trump a four-percentage-point lead over Harris in Iowa, and one in June that had him with an 18-point lead over President Joe Biden, who was then the presumptive Democratic nominee.

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris speaks throughout a marketing campaign occasion at Montage Mountain Resort in Scranton, Pa., Nov. 4, 2024.
Jacquelyn Martin/AP
“This actually threw a monkey wrench into everybody’s pre-election evaluation,” Klein mentioned on “ABC Information Dwell” Sunday evening. “It is a ballot in Iowa – sure, Iowa – that has Kamala Harris main by three factors.”
Trump took to social media to assault each the Des Moines Register ballot and Selzer, who has overseen the Register’s polls since 1987 and whom Klein described as a “very respected pollster.”
“No President has finished extra for FARMERS, and the Nice State of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump,” Trump wrote in a publish on his Reality Social community on Sunday morning. “In reality, it’s not even shut! All polls, aside from one closely skewed towards the Democrats by a Trump hater who referred to as it completely improper the final time, have me up, BY A LOT.”
In a Des Moines Register ballot launched simply earlier than the 2020 election, Selzer discovered Trump main Biden 48% to 41%. Trump went on to win Iowa 53% to 45%.

A girl casts her poll throughout early voting for the US common election at a polling station at Ottawa Hills Excessive College in Grand Rapids, Michigan, Nov. 3, 2024.
Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP by way of Getty Pictures
“It is arduous for anyone to say they noticed this coming,” Selzer advised the Des Moines Register of the most recent ballot. “She [Harris] has clearly leaped into the main place.”
“Age and gender are the 2 most dynamic elements which can be explaining these numbers,” Selzer added.

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump arrives to talk at a marketing campaign rally at J.S. Dorton Area, Nov. 4, 2024, in Raleigh, N.C.
Evan Vucci/AP
With simply hours remaining within the race, each candidates are working to sway undecided voters and make their remaining pitches of their bids for the White Home. Harris was campaigning Monday within the swing state of Pennsylvania, whereas Trump was making marketing campaign stops in North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Greater than 78 million folks had already voted as of Monday afternoon, together with a report variety of in-person votes, according to the College of Florida Election Lab.
“There aren’t many individuals who suppose Donald Trump goes to all of the sudden lose the state that he gained by eight factors, nevertheless it may point out a number of the weak point he has with voters in different states, together with Wisconsin and Michigan,” Klein mentioned of the Des Moines Register’s newest ballot.

Girls for Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump present their assist as he arrives to talk throughout a marketing campaign rally at J.S. Dorton Area, Nov. 4, 2024, in Raleigh, N.C.
Evan Vucci/AP
An ABC Information/Ipsos ballot launched Saturday confirmed Harris with an general three-point benefit over Trump amongst possible voters nationwide, 49% to 46%.
“The polls haven’t moved since Kamala Harris received within the race,” Klein mentioned Monday on ABC’s “Good Morning America,” referring to the ABC Information/Ipsos ballot, which exhibits assist for both candidate hasn’t modified considerably since then.
Klein additionally cited the most recent New York Times/Siena College poll exhibiting Harris making up floor in a number of the seven battleground states. The ballot discovered that Harris is up in Nevada by three factors, up in North Carolina and Wisconsin by two factors and forward by one level in Georgia. The ballot discovered Trump was forward in Arizona by 4 factors and that the race was tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
Supporters collect round Democratic presidential nominee U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris throughout her rally at Michigan State College in East Lansing, Michigan, Nov. 3, 2024.
Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters
So far as the gender hole goes, the ABC Information/Ipsos ballot discovered girls general going for Harris by 11 proportion factors, whereas girls registered as impartial had been supporting Harris by 18 proportion factors and girls underneath 30 had been going for the vice chairman by 40-plus factors.
The ABC Information/Ipsos ballot discovered Trump main general amongst males by 5 proportion factors, whereas males registered as impartial had been going for Trump by 4 proportion factors and males underneath 30 had been siding with Trump by 5 proportion factors.
Klein mentioned the ABC Information/Ipsos ballot additionally discovered that 74% of People say the nation is on the improper observe, together with half of Harris supporters and 98% of Trump supporters.
“Wild numbers,” Klein mentioned. “And people are the sorts of issues which can be simply usually brutal for an incumbent celebration, however, in fact, that is an uncommon yr in so some ways.”
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